Top 10 Considerations for Betting on Baseball

Baseball Is Difficult to Predict

The fact that a team plays 162 games makes every game less important than say a 16 game NFL season. And the outcome of a baseball game is disproportionately dependent on two players - the pitcher for each team. But with so many games to play, following a solid strategy and sticking with it through good and bad times should average out over the coarse of a season. It is an exercise in selective betting and money management - topics we discuss elsewhere. In any case, here are our top ten considerations when betting on baseball!

10. Streaks
Perhaps too much is made of streaks. There are systems to bet or stop betting a team when a win streak reaches a certain number. I always recommend betting a team return to their normal ways. In other words, a .600 team with consecutive losses may be a good bet to win a game (assuming there isn't an external factor causing the losing streak). And on the flip side, a .300 team on a two game win streak. Just be careful not to chase with this strategy - make measured wagers.

9. Injuries
Injured players (or suspended players) have a negative overall effect on a team. A pitching staff missing a starter or two causes the others to try harder and they end up overpitching. And even a great team may only be good without their star. But on the other side, sometimes the bookmakers overestimate this effect and you can find some bargains.

8. Rivalies
Rivalries form because teams play each other a lot. Take for example the Yankees and Red Sox - they typically come close to splitting the season series, so when I see +150 odds or better, it is usually smart to take the dog. This is true of many rivalries. Consider everything else listed here, but do realize even bad teams get up for big rivalries.

7. Bet what you know
Some handicappers refuse to bet their local team fearing an emotional response will skew their judgement. But very few average gamblers know all the teams inside and out. If you can be realistic about your teams chances, then go with it. Trck is not being overly optimistic or pessimistic.

6. Favorite or Underdog? Home or Away?
A lot can be said both about teams and betting habits when looking at combinations of home and away teams either favored or not. For the team, there is psychology and some teams can't deal with the pressure of being the favorite. And likewise, some teams feel demoralized when they aren't expected to win. And as far as the bettor is concerned, it is easier to rationalize the favorite to win than the underdog to manage the upset. Add in the fact that the home team typically has a moneyline shift in their favor - but historically home teams only win about 55%. Bookmakers often overcompensate as "home favorites" are the most common bet... and possibly rookie mistake.

Track who you are betting on to see if you are being lured into those favorites.

5. Be Selective
For beginners, I normally recommend picking up to 3 games to handicap, allowing a minimum of 20 minutes per game to research. When you are done, assign your confidence in the wager - 1 through 5 stars. Only bet the 4 or 5 star games :) Be honest with yourself! By guessing less and playing fewer games where you feel you know something you will inprove your win percentage.

4. Manage Risk
Try betting such that the reward is the same for all bets - risk more for big favorites and less for the underdogs. It's a great way to manage risk.

3. Weather
You should NEVER place a bet on a baseball game without looking at the weather forecast - excluding domes, of course. Since baseball is so dependent on pitching and homeruns, the weather plays a key role. Ideally, knowing which direction is "blowing out" for a given stadium is a huge advantage. A good hitting team will get a huge advantage - if they can make contact with the ball. Warm, humid weather also helps. Cold weather isn't very good for anyone and keeps the score down. The best pitchers may not have their best stuff on a cold day - which gives the underdog an edge.

2. Pitchers
The starting pitchers dominate the odds on the game... for good reason. The handful of elite pitchers can dominate 6 to 7 innings of a game. But remember that although the average pitcher gets 30+ starts, very few have more than 15 wins. I'd guess (sorry, no facts to back this claim) that about 50% of those remaining 15 games are won by their team - which is still a 75% win pct (good for -300 odds) which makes a -200 or -220 line seem like a bargain. Dont hesitate to take the high percentage wins, just realize you need to risk more on those games.

1. The Moneyline
Sorry to be anti-climactic, but this Baseball Betting 101. It is vitally important to understand moneylines. And there are two bits of information you should always have in the back of your mind: How much you need to bet for the same reward and what the win percentage needs to be for the bet to make sense. Before even looking at the moneyline, try thinking about each game as if they were playing the same game 100 times - how many times would the team you pick win? Then, compare that to the conversion of the moneyline. For example, a -150 line would need to win 60% of the time. Then realize you need to bet $150 to win $100. Betting the underdog (at +130) you need wager about $77. So even if the underdog is less likely to win, they dont have to win half the time to make your money back.